Gun control is hard. Right now, it's likely to be considerably harder than it was in the early 90s when Bill Clinton took on the gun lobby and won. So, as we mourn those who died and think about what we can do about these massacres, several things to keep in mind, some of which I borrow from Jonathan Chait:
1) President Obama is not Gandalf the Grey. Or the White. He cannot wave his staff and end gun violence. I say this because far too many liberals believe that he can do so. During the health care and budget battles, for instance, Rachel Maddow repeatedly displayed her vast ignorance of such ideas as the "separation of powers" and assumed the president could cry, "This far and no farther." He can't. Note that he was careful to say, "within the powers of my office" or some such, in his speech. That line was directed at MSNBC.
2) The Republican Party controls the House of Representatives. They oppose nearly all forms of gun control. In addition, gerrymandering has put many of them in safe districts, places where the only real challenge to re-election comes from the RIGHT in primaries.
3) The Democratic Party controls the Senate but a number of Democrats from red states (Louisiana and Arkansas, for instance) and from gun-friendly swing states (New Mexico, I believe) are up for re-election in 2014. These are going to be very hard votes to get. In general, there are a # of Democratic Senators elected in the 2008 Obama wave, such as Al Franken. Asking them to make too many tough votes is a dicey proposition.
4) The House Republicans, moderate House Dems from swing districts, moderate Senate Dems listed above, and the moderate Rs will also be asked in the next month or so to raise taxes. Particularly for those House Rs, a voting record that includes tax increases and gun control practically begs for a Tea Party primary challenge.
5) The gun lobby is legendarily effective, trailing only the Israeli lobby, perhaps, for effectiveness. To their expertise, add the Citizens United decision. A billionaire or multimillion gun enthusiast can now hold to account the few House members who might make passage possible, threaten them, and then, if they defy him/her, pour tens of millions of dollars into a HOUSE race. The members are rather aware of this fact.
What is to be done? I think James Madison would provide deceptively simple advice: Make it in the interest of those folks to vote for gun control. How?
1) Imitate the health care strategy--bring many stakeholders into the negotiations early in the process. It's messy, annoying, and screams "compromise" to the lefties, but it disarmed some BIG potential opponents on health care and might do the same here. It also means the package won't be perfect, just as Obamacare was not Medicare for all. It will be a compromise.
2) Provide political cover. Senator Joe Manchin (D--WV) might be a key. He's the most conservative Dem Senator and he LOVES him some guns. He's talking about assault weapons (when we say that, we mean a) semi-auto; b) high capacity magazines; c) small, high velocity ammo) and he could provide much cover.
3) Continuing political pressure from the president--relentless discussion of the issue in every forum. In particular, I think he needs to empahsize the fact, as he did in the speech, that he's now done this 4 times. This can't become the new normal. That has to be the mantra--this is not the new normal. This is not who we are. Calmly, but persistently, make this an identity issue--who are we?
4) Grass roots pressure--activate all kinds of netowrks to show House members that there are people in their districts willing to stand up on this issue, to be as single-minded in support of gun control as others are in opposition. Beforehand, pledge to wavering members and afterward, contribute to those who made the plunge. Show them the money.
One other important note. Those who support gun control are not jack-booted UN terrorists seeking to strip Americans of their way of life and leave them helpless before tyrants. Those who oppose gun control are not babykillers nor are they supporting child murderers. They are--we are--fellow Americans.
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