The punditocracy has spent the last couple of days advising disconsolate Republicans about the future of their party. Democrats have partied. The roles need to reverse if liberals are to sustain the gains they have made in 2012.
Put simply, second terms suck. With rare exceptions, presidents founder in their second terms and their political parties pay the price. From arrogance to scandal, from bad policy choices to reckless political acts, presidents generally have terrible trouble after they win reelection. There are partial exceptions; Reagan suffered a major scandal, but also signed tax reform into law and negotiated the end of the Cold War with Mikhail Gorbachev. For the most part, however, President Obama and the Democratic Party need to think carefully and move surely in the coming days. In the assurance that David Axelrod always checks in with the Oratorical Animal, I offer a few humble suggestions for securing liberal gains and avoiding political shipwreck.
1) Good administration: Incompetence and scandal often shadow second terms because the president cannot find enough good appointees as his time winds down and because the president and his staff get fat and lazy. FEMA fails. Mistresses appear. Ayatollahs get arms. Chiefs of staff get fur coats. The list goes on. Running the government is just as hard now as it was when you began. Pay attention.
2) Persuade Americans to love EXISTING policies: In the next two years, the administration will implement two major initiatives from the first term: health care reform and financial regulation. This should not--CANNOT--be a technocratic process. Judging by the polls, Americans trust neither reform. Judging by the policy analysis, they should trust both reforms. Good rhetoric will be needed to close that gap. These are major persuasive campaigns, akin to an election campaign. The administration's most conspicuous and inexplicable rhetorical failure in the first term was its inability to persuade Americans that Obamacare was good. This cannot continue if Obama's legacy is to live and if liberal gains are to be secured.
3) Dance with them what brung you: In other words, look after your core constituencies. Some policies (likely the budget and entitlement reform) will disappoint people who turned out in huge numbers for president and party. Careful thought needs to be given to policies that will compensate for the inevitable harm that will happen. Latino and Latina voters deserve a DREAM act, immigration reform, and perhaps Puerto Rican statehood. African Americans deserve justice reform, especially sentencing reform and an end to the war on drugs. These two moves ought to have bipartisan resonance and yet will rebound to the president's credit.
Liberals are also likely to get cranky and, despite some misgivings, they strongly supported the president at the polls. What's possible there? Appointments. Judicial appointments, administrative appointments. As the Republicans long ago learned, a key way to secure your legacy is to put judges and civil service folks in place who agree with your world view. Obama has shamefully neglected appointments in his first term and, if Eric Holder is the problem, fire him. The president likely has two good years to do this and he needs--urgently--to reverse the lackadaisical attitude of the first term.
Finally, a broad agenda on women's rights--in particular, work to secure reproductive rights but seek to shift the debate also to economic ground. I'm no expert, but what are ways to encourage women's economic success? Education, small business loans, whatever. Make this issue a Democratic issue.
4) Electoral reform: There's all sorts of loose talk out there about constitutional amendments to overturn Citizens United and all sorts of crap. Focus on a few, straightforward reforms that matter and that make people's lives easier. Again, I'm no expert, but is it possible to pass a law requiring a minimum number of polling places per such and such 1000 of the population. Simply requiring states to have enough polling places would help a lot, if that's possible. Offer financial help to strapped states to make this possible and create as powerful a rhetorical campaign as possible for early voting. In other words, focus on the ease of voting as a first step.
5) Don't get complacent about Superpacs: There's been a lot of loose talk and laughter at the billionaires. Hee-hee, look at the stupid rich people. Those hundreds of millions of dollars will be a lot less funny when a) it's a midterm election, people pay less attention, turnout is lower, and it's harder to nationalize the campaign; and b) when the warm and sheltering umbrella of the Obama fund raising operation is gone. Barack Obama has been the best mass fundraiser in the nation's history. Guess what? He's a lame duck. And the bad guys will rev up the air war and carpet bomb Democratic candidates again in 2014.
6) Think about the next two elections: OMG, NO!!!!!! Yes. Don't let the hard-earned knowledge and expertise of the Obama campaign disappear. Dems have a serious social science/technological edge, a conceptual edge, on the Republicans right now, an edge comparable to the early 80s, when the Republicans had mastered direct mail. Those Obama folks need to pay it forward to other causes and campaigns. Make or use think tanks. Institutionalize this knowledge.
Start recruiting 2014 candidates now. Given especially the Senate victories, liberals and progressives are, perhaps, a touch irrantionally optimistic. Good. Use that. Get very good people to commit to run for important seats. Money does matter, but it's also true that you can't put lipstick on a "rape philosopher" and call him a viable Senate candidate. The Dems had a big advantage in candidate quality. Keep it.
There are lots of other issues, of course, and I've purposely ignored the topics that will get tons of press--the fiscal cliff, tax reform, climate change, etc. This is stuff the president, the administration, and the party can do with minimal cooperation from opponents or in areas, like immigration reform, with enormous leverage. Do them.
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