Keith Olbermann noted last night that this was the 49th debate we've viewed during Election 2008. Oh my. No wonder the commentariat was so confused. For the first half-hour after the debate, they tried (with the exception of our Rachel) to claim that John McCain won. Evidently, inappropriate volume, snorting, and displaying aggression are signs of a winning debate style, not the mating rituals of mountain goats. The American people, however, were not fooled and when the 2-1 margins began showing up in a variety of snap polls, the pundits miracuously found evidence of McCain's failures. They should have noticed those from the beginning. This wasn't his best debate, as many asserted. It was his worst.
Here's how my grad school office mate taught me to view these things. On one level, you can chart the individual exchanges and figure out who won. What claims were made? Who defended their claims effectively, with good reasons and solid evidence? Which candidate better responded to the other's claims and refuted those claims? On another level, not all exchanges are equal. Some arguments are central to a campaign's identity and some are not. In 1980, Jimmy Carter argued that Ronald Reagan was a dangerous man; he'd be too free with nukes. When Reagan argumentatively destroyed Carter on the nuclear prolif issue in their debate (this was the infamous Amy exchange), well, game, set, and match to Reagan. Now, I don't think there was quite the same sort of impact last night. But there was a great example of McCain's overall failure.
Senator Obama has run a tightly disciplined rhetorical campaign centered on an adaptation of James Carville's 3 1992 rules: 1) Change vs. More of the Same: Bush=McCain; 2) It's the economy, stupid; and 3) Don't forget energy and health care. McCain naturally wishes to deny those claims and, last night, he planned carefully and had a sound bite ready to go: "Senator Obama, I am not President Bush." He then crankily asserted that, if Obama had wanted to run against Bush, he should have done so in 2004. McCain leaned back, pleased he'd delivered his zinger. According to CNN, McCain staffers gleefully e-mailed reporters, exulting in their hit and put it up on Youtube before the debate was even over.
And it wasn't over. Senator Obama came right back at him, noting that McCain wasn't the exact same person as Bush and, to McCain's credit, he'd opposed Bush on some issues, like torture. But on crucial economic issues, McCain constantly sided with Bush--tax cuts, budgets, health care. Obama rattled off a list, emphasizing the times McCain had voted for Bush budgets.
As Obama did this, McCain grew steadily more agitated in the reaction shots and then, the second Obama finished, burst out with a series of issues on which he'd opposed Bush. All were questionable, but that didn't really matter because none concerned the economy. McCain completely missed Obama's claim. He dropped the argument.
Lest you think this is too detailed or sophisticated an analysis for "ordinary people" to catch, realize that we have arguments like this all of the time in everyday life. We know when someone doesn't speak to the point. Cardinals fan: Hey Murphy, 100 years since a World Series, guy, 100 years. Me: Hey, we won 97 games this year--better than you. Cardinals Fan: 100 years, baby, 100 years. My response does not refute the claim. All know this. That's what happened repeatedly last night.
And, if you happened to miss this exchange, the Obama people cut an ad to emphasize it. It shows McCain making the "I am not" assertion, demolishes that claim with objective evidence, and concludes with a shot of McCain claiming he voted with Bush 90% of the time. So, the Obama people and their candidate understood this was a crucial argument, central to their campaign's identity; they beat John McCain in the argument; they highlighted the victory with an advertisement, reinforcing the initial claim. They are running a coherent, professional campaign.
The McCain campaign, meanwhile, did what they've done the entire election. They focused on one small shot, were inordinately pleased with themselves (like Frat boys) when they made the hit (like Ayers, Britney, Paris, ACORN, suspending the campaign, etc.), and never realized they'd walked right into a powerful counterpunch, one that grew not only from a steady Obama campaign with a sustained narrative justifying the election of its candidate, but also from a previous statement by McCain on film, one that had been used in previous advertisements. Why prepare, use, and emphasize the "I am not" zinger when you KNOW that there's film of your candidate claiming 90% agreement with Bush? Did they forget? Do they not watch Obama's ads? What the hell? This is amateur hour.
By the by, I also suspect that these sorts of moments are always the moments when McCain loses it and the reason he lost it so much last night was because he's now dug a deeeeep hole. McCain loses his composure most readily when (my theory) he knows he's wrong. He knows he's run a slimy campaign, so he reacted throughout that discussion. He knows Sarah Palin was a bad choice, so he overreacted there. He knows he pandered to the base by reversing himself on Bush-nomics, and so lost his composure there. Every time McCain gets especially agitated, it's when he's discussing a point on which he probably knows he's wrong, but feels compelled to defend anyway. Why he felt compelled to reverse himself, take on Palin, etc. in the first place is anyone's guess, but go to the videotape. He flips when he's flipped--when he feels he's violated his own self-image.
Bad debate, Senator. Bad campaign. Being true to yourself is actually an effective tactic. Too bad you don't believe that.
“McCain was completely incapable of sustaining any momentum, and clumsily returned again and again to his "Joe the Plumber" gimmick. It was clear that John had "jumped the shark" when he began talking directly to the unseen "Joe", and congratulating him for being "rich". I think he realized too that he had blown his "last best chance". His eyes started flittering back and forth like he was lost and scared, and he began to make the faces that have been the source of so much speculation regarding his temperament and stability.”
Read more at:http://dgrim.blogspot.com/
Posted by: merge divide | October 16, 2008 at 09:11 AM